![]() At even strength he did shoot a bit more frequently with some increased danger so his increased shooting percentage might not entirely be an illusion there either, especially since he has done it now three times in the last five seasons. All this being equal, he might add a couple of goals on the power play. He has often shot over 20 percent on the power-play as well, but was only around 15 percent in 2022-23. Travis Konecny didn't see much of an increase in power-play time, and only put up five power-play goals (though it did match a career high in fewer games played). ![]() Given some of the underlying context which indicates he was in fact just more dangerous than in recent seasons, another 30-goal season doesn't seem out of the question. He did it with a shooting percentage of 25 percent on the power play, which is higher than his recent career numbers but again he was also more dangerous (in addition to seeing more time, and shooting more on the power play).Ī true regression to his career averages would put him on a 24-goal pace for 2023-24, assuming similar shot rates. ![]() The same is true on the power play, where he put up 15 goals. He did shoot more, though not by a ton, so that is part of it, but it looks like something changed and he was just more dangerous at even strength. It is more complicated than that, though.Įach of the past four seasons his goal total mirrors the trend of his expected goal numbers and in 2022-23 at even strength his expected goal numbers were the highest (by a fair margin) of that time period. Sure, maybe we just split the difference and say she shoots closer to his career 12 percent and call it a day. Obviously those two things are connected. His 37-goal output and 18.41 shooting percentage seem even more outlandish when we realize he had only 11 goals and shot at 7 percent in 2021-22. We start off with a bang with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. What remains are players who saw the biggest change in shooting percentage in 2022-23 from their three-year average. These players won't be relevant fantasy targets for the vast majority of leagues. Without those filters, the table included a ton of very high shooting percentages (upwards of 50 percent) from players who only scored a couple of goals or played a couple of games. The second filter excludes players who did not record at least 30 points. Firstly, this is only showing players who played at least 20 games. The following table is the list of the top five largest increases. Our job is to take a look at the context and see if we buy the jump and/or the goal total that came along with it. ![]() We usually care about the goals after all – not necessarily about the shooting percentage.įor today, all of the players mentioned will have done something different in 2022-23 compared to their recent averages. This could happen because of a change in role on the team, a new coach, or a new team. How would this happen? With a player who is in a position to take more shots. ![]() We also have to consider that a shooting percentage might regress, but the goal total won't. It is relatively expected that a player might have a higher shooting percentage on the power play than at five-on-five. Obviously it is more complicated than that as shooting percentage, as much as it is a relatively consistent individual stat, is dependent on a number of factors, like deployment. Once that is established, we can go ahead and say we expect them to go back to what they used to do and call it done. The reason is that shooting percentage is a simple way to tell if someone has done something different than usual. The summer is a time full of articles exploring players who "should be better next season" or are "likely to fall off." Sometimes this is pure conjecture, but often it is related to shooting percentage. Today on Frozen Tool Forensics we are going to dig into shooting percentage. 2023-24 Fantasy Hockey Guide Dobber’s 18th Annual Guide. ![]()
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